Streaks in consumer credit data are rare. Balances usually wobble, up one quarter, down the next, responding to seasonal spending, tax refunds, and rate moves. What Surging HELOC Balances Tells Us About the Next Five Years So when something runs seventeen quarters in a row, it isn’t noise. It’s structure. According to the Federal Reserve… Read More »
On Monday, the 30-year fixed jumped six basis points to 6.87%, the highest daily reading since June 2025. It was up 12 basis points from the previous Thursday and more than 30 basis points over two months. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey printed 6.66% on September 1. The 10-year Treasury is hovering near 4.79%, and the… Read More »
Why Your Low Mortgage Rate Is Your Best Asset Three Federal Reserve officials walked into last week’s meeting wanting to raise interest rates. That sentence would have sounded absurd twelve months ago. In September, October, and December of 2025, the Fed cut three times in a row, and the consensus in this industry — mine… Read More »
In 25 years of watching the Federal Reserve shape the mortgage market, I have learned to identify the moments that actually move the needle for American homebuyers and to separate them from the noise. Most Fed transitions are bureaucratic handoffs. The Powell-to-Warsh transition is not. Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on a 54–45… Read More »
A Forecast Built on Peace, a New Fed Chair, and a Bond Market Ready to Move Something significant is shifting in the mortgage market and most borrowers have not noticed it yet. After eighteen months of rate volatility driven by geopolitical conflict, Federal Reserve paralysis, and bond market uncertainty, the conditions for a genuine summer… Read More »
The honest answer as of April 2, 2026: for most American homeowners, mortgage refinancing is not worth it right now and the window that briefly opened in late February has largely closed. That is a harder answer than the mortgage industry typically delivers, but it is the accurate one. Here is what happened, why it… Read More »
Closing costs on mortgage refinance loans are an important component to consider when applying online. Many homeowners are considering a mortgage refinance as rates have been on a generally near record lows over the last few years. Even though they are higher than they were, rates are still historically low, so now could be a… Read More »
The U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, have already caused significant volatility in mortgage rates, reversing what had been welcomed progress in housing affordability. After falling below 6% for the first time since 2022—a key psychological threshold for homebuyers—the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed back to 6.11% by March 12, according… Read More »
Last updated: March 20, 2026 — reflecting Freddie Mac’s March 19, 2026 PMMS release and Fannie Mae’s March 2026 Housing Forecast published March 16, 2026. After three years of elevated borrowing costs that have kept millions of Americans on the sidelines of homeownership, one question still dominates conversations among prospective buyers, current homeowners, and real… Read More »
The American housing market has undergone a dramatic transformation since 2020. After years of soaring prices, record-low inventory, and mortgage rates that climbed from historic lows of 2.65% in January 2021 to nearly 7% in 2025, homebuyers face a vastly different landscape than just a few years ago. The good news? Housing affordability is showing… Read More »
